by Geoffrey Brumfiel

Today, the
World Health Organization
(WHO) released a preliminary estimate of the dose received by the
public as a result of last March’s meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiichi
nuclear plant in Japan.
Nature has seen a draft of the
final report, and it is mostly good news—the doses are very low, and very few cancers would be expected as a result.
Most residents of Fukushima prefecture received between 1-10
millisieverts (mSv) in the first year after the accident, according to
the estimate. Those in neighbouring prefectures received between 0.1-10
mSv and the rest of Japan received between 0.1-1 mSv. These levels are
well below the government’s maximum recommended dose of 20 mSv, and will
cause a minimal increase in cancer risk.
The obvious question is how minimal. According to David Brenner, a
radiation biophysicist at Columbia University in New York City, a dose
of 5 mSv would be estimated to lead to one excess cancer per 5,000
people exposed. Given that roughly 2,000 of those 5,000 people are going
to develop cancer anyway, this is a tiny increase in risk, and Brenner
emphasizes that the uncertainties in his calculations are high.
There were two areas that were above the 10mSv range. In Namie town
and Itate village, to the north-west of the plant, residents received
between 10-50 mSv in the first year. This is because both towns were
beneath a plume of fallout from the plant, but still outside the
evacuation zone set up immediately after the accident. Residents in
these areas remained until a few months later, when they voluntarily
left at the government’s request. As a consequence, they received a
higher dose of radiation.
Even the worse case scenario, 50 mSv, poses a pretty minimal risk.
However, the models showed that infants living in Namie town could have
gotten a higher dose to their thyroid, of between 100-200 mSv. That
higher dose would be mainly due to radioactive iodine-131 blowing from
the plant immediately following the accident. Brenner says a dose of 200
mSv to a female infant under a year old might mean a 1% risk of
developing thyroid cancer over her lifetime (by comparison, the lifetime
risk in the US is 0.02%).
It’s important to remember that the WHO numbers are based on models,
and real doses would vary quite a bit. A survey of 1,080 infants and
children in the area has shown no thyroid doses above 50 mSv thus far.
Similarly, radiation surveys of Fukushima residents show very low doses.
All of these measurements are consistent with the WHO model.
We’re going to have a much more detailed story on the doses received by civilians and the workers at the plant later today.
Image: Nature (data from: WHO/METI)